2.50
Hdl Handle:
http://hdl.handle.net/2173/96504
Title:
Extended scenarios for glacier melt due to anthropogenic forcing
Authors:
Wigley, T. M. L.; Raper, Sarah C. B.
Citation:
Geophysical research letters, 2005, vol. 32, L05704
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Issue Date:
2005
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/2173/96504
DOI:
10.1029/2004GL021238
Additional Links:
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Abstract:
The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) developed a formula for the global meltwater contribution to sea level rise from Glaciers and Small Ice Caps (GSICs) that is applicable out to 2100. We show that, if applied to times beyond 2100 (as is necessary to assess sea level rise for concentration‐stabilization scenarios), the formula imposes an unrealistic upper bound on GSIC melt. A modification is introduced that allows the formula to be extended beyond 2100 with asymptotic melt equal to the initially available ice volume (V0). The modification has a negligible effect on the original TAR formulation out to 2100 and provides support for the IPCC method over this time period. We examine the sensitivity of GSIC melt to uncertainties in V0 and mass balance sensitivity, and give results for a range of CO2 concentration stabilization cases. Approximately 73–94% of GSIC ice is lost by 2400.
Type:
Article
Language:
en
Description:
Full-text of this article is not available in this e-prints service. This article was originally published following peer-review in Geophysical Research Letters, published by and copyright American Geophysical Union.
Keywords:
Glaciers; Sea Level; Climate Change; Global Warming
ISSN:
0094-8276; 1944-8007

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorWigley, T. M. L.en
dc.contributor.authorRaper, Sarah C. B.en
dc.date.accessioned2010-04-14T10:36:06Z-
dc.date.available2010-04-14T10:36:06Z-
dc.date.issued2005-
dc.identifier.citationGeophysical research letters, 2005, vol. 32, L05704en
dc.identifier.issn0094-8276-
dc.identifier.issn1944-8007-
dc.identifier.doi10.1029/2004GL021238-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2173/96504-
dc.descriptionFull-text of this article is not available in this e-prints service. This article was originally published following peer-review in Geophysical Research Letters, published by and copyright American Geophysical Union.en
dc.description.abstractThe IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) developed a formula for the global meltwater contribution to sea level rise from Glaciers and Small Ice Caps (GSICs) that is applicable out to 2100. We show that, if applied to times beyond 2100 (as is necessary to assess sea level rise for concentration‐stabilization scenarios), the formula imposes an unrealistic upper bound on GSIC melt. A modification is introduced that allows the formula to be extended beyond 2100 with asymptotic melt equal to the initially available ice volume (V0). The modification has a negligible effect on the original TAR formulation out to 2100 and provides support for the IPCC method over this time period. We examine the sensitivity of GSIC melt to uncertainties in V0 and mass balance sensitivity, and give results for a range of CO2 concentration stabilization cases. Approximately 73–94% of GSIC ice is lost by 2400.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherAmerican Geophysical Unionen
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.agu.org/journals/gl/en
dc.subjectGlaciersen
dc.subjectSea Levelen
dc.subjectClimate Changeen
dc.subjectGlobal Warmingen
dc.titleExtended scenarios for glacier melt due to anthropogenic forcingen
dc.typeArticleen
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