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espace at MMU > Faculties > Faculty of Science and Engineering > Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences: Centre for Air Transport and the Environment (CATE) > Extended scenarios for glacier melt due to anthropogenic forcing

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2173/96504
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Title: Extended scenarios for glacier melt due to anthropogenic forcing
Authors: Wigley, T. M. L.
Raper, Sarah C. B.
Citation: Geophysical research letters, 2005, vol. 32, L05704
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Issue Date: 2005
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2173/96504
DOI: 10.1029/2004GL021238
Additional Links: http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/
Abstract: The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) developed a formula for the global meltwater contribution to sea level rise from Glaciers and Small Ice Caps (GSICs) that is applicable out to 2100. We show that, if applied to times beyond 2100 (as is necessary to assess sea level rise for concentration‐stabilization scenarios), the formula imposes an unrealistic upper bound on GSIC melt. A modification is introduced that allows the formula to be extended beyond 2100 with asymptotic melt equal to the initially available ice volume (V0). The modification has a negligible effect on the original TAR formulation out to 2100 and provides support for the IPCC method over this time period. We examine the sensitivity of GSIC melt to uncertainties in V0 and mass balance sensitivity, and give results for a range of CO2 concentration stabilization cases. Approximately 73–94% of GSIC ice is lost by 2400.
Type: Article
Language: en
Description: Full-text of this article is not available in this e-prints service. This article was originally published following peer-review in Geophysical Research Letters, published by and copyright American Geophysical Union.
Keywords: Glaciers
Sea Level
Climate Change
Global Warming
ISSN: 0094-8276
1944-8007
Appears in Collections: Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences: Centre for Air Transport and the Environment (CATE)

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